Markets closed up about more than 2% for the week. Nifty ended at striking distance from 9900. As you read this SGX has already breached that level. Large caps showed a lot of action with Reliance hitting highs again. The sentiment is upbeat albeit a bit of froth was seen in some IPO counters. Volatility ruled names like CDSL, AU Finance, ERIS and HUDCO. These stocks saw huge price action.
Technically speaking the markets finally broke out and are at all time highs. 9900 puts have seen some shorting and call writing has been subdued. 9720 (last high) is now a base level and key to Nifty’s immediate trend. On the upside 10k is doing the rounds – and may be a reality soon. 9450 seems to be the new intermediate bottom.
Fundamentals will start to show soon as results season has kicked off. Inflation came in at an all time low in years prompting an increased expectation of rate cuts. Multiples are inflated and at historical highs. Nifty continues its 24x P/E. With a lot to reach in terms of individual results one has to play the ride cautiously. A small reason – be it geopolitical or random news flow, can create havoc due to historically stretched levels.
Globally DOW and S&P found their own reasons to close at all time highs. The “reduced” fear of a rate hike from not-so-encouraging economic data prompted a positive close to major US indices. What is surprising to see – the CBOE VIX – volatility index has hit an all time low since 1993. For a contrarian trader this is complacency at its best or worse.
Sectors to watch out for next week are Infra and Banks. Stocks in these indices may stage an extended rally if market sentiment supports them. PSU banks were showing some action and select are likely to do so going forward. Pharma companies have given a very strong show over the past few weeks. The rally should consolidate before scaling old highs. One has to be stock specific as result season will continuously re rate a lot of these issues.