Currency Insight May 27, 2015

Euro pushes higher as dollar rally pauses

The euro pushed higher against the dollar on Wednesday after Greece played down the threat of an imminent default, as the greenback paused following a rally on the back of expectations for a U.S. rate hike later this year. EUR/USD was up 0.41% to 1.0916, still not far from the one-month lows of 1.0862 struck on Tuesday. The single currency found support after the Greek government expressed confidence to that it would make a €305 million payment to the International Monetary Fund due on June 5.

USD/CAD rises to 1-month highs in early trade

The U.S. dollar rose to one-month highs against its Canadian counterpart on Tuesday, after the release of mixed U.S. durable goods orders data, as expectations for a U.S. rate hike in the coming months continued to support. USD/CAD hit 1.2416 during early U.S. trade, the pair’s highest since April 15; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2415, advancing 0.82%. The pair was likely to find support at 1.2275, Monday’s low and resistance at 1.2570, the high of April 15. In a report, the U.S. Commerce Department said that total durable goods orders, which include transportation items, declined by 0.5% last month, compared to expectations for a drop of 0.4%.

Pound falls to 2-week lows vs. stronger dollar

The pound fell to two-week lows against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as expectations for a U.S. rate hike in the coming months continued to lend broad support to the greenback.

GBP/USD hit 1.5385 during European morning trade, the pair’s lowest since May 8; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5415, sliding 0.36%. Cable was likely to find support at 1.5241, the low of May 8 and resistance at 1.5591, the high of May 20. The dollar was boosted after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated Friday that the bank still expects to start raising interest rates later in the year if the economy continues to improve as expected.
Rupee third on fake foreign currency list in Switzerland!

With Switzerland remaining in focus in India’s fight against black money stashed abroad, the quantum of counterfeit Indian rupee seized by Swiss Police is third highest among all foreign currencies despite a sharp fall from the previous year.

As per the latest ‘counterfeit statistics’ released by the the Federal Office of Police (Fedpol), the total number of counterfeit Indian rupee notes seized during 2014 stood at 181, down from 403 in the previous year.  This is third highest among all foreign currencies after the euro (2,860) and the US dollar (1,101).

Important events and their explanation:

 

Time ( IST) Currency Economic Data Expectation Previous
6:20am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
6:40am USD FOMC Member Lacker Speaks
12:30pm EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 10 10.1
Day 1 ALL G7 Meetings

Explanation:-

No Major events for the day. Except G7 Meeting

FOREX USDINR_Weekly_3Year

 

Market is waiting for the RBI meeting , and we expect .25 basis cut in the meeting which is already been discounted. Hence any further cut i.e .50 would be negative for the USDINR.

 

EURINR

FOREX EURINR_Daily_1Yearl

 

All eyes are on the Greece payment to the World bank. Any negative news might drag the pair till 69.20/.10 levels.

Support is expected to be around 69.60/50  levels and resistance 71.63/78  levels.