German trade surplus rose to EUR 24 billion in June
The data released by the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on Friday showed a record trade surplus of EUR 24.0 billion in June 2015. In June 2014, the surplus amounted to EUR 16.2 billion. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 22.0 billion euros in June 2015.
Year-on-year German exports increased by 13.7% and imports by 6.4% in June 2015. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports fell by 1.0% and imports by 0.5% compared with May 2015. German H1 trade surplus surged 25.3% year-on-year to EUR 123.7 billion.
Exports of goods to countries outside the European Union (third countries) amounted to 44.5 billion euros in June 2015, up 15.8% year-on-year. The official report revealed that In June 2015, goods to the value of EUR 22.6 billion (+14.2%) were dispatched to EU countries not belonging to the Euro area.
The year-on-year surge in exports to non-EU countries is hardly surprising since the EUR/USD rate has depreciated significantly. In June 2014 average stood at 1.3550, while the June 2015 average stood at around 1.1200
Inflation will be low in next 6 months – BOE’s Broadbent
The Bank of England deputy governor Broadbent was on the BBC radio on Friday stating that inflation will remain low in next 6 months. Broadbent’s comments come a day after the Bank of England slashed its 2015 forecast from 0.6% to 0.3%. He further added that the rise in bank rate will be lower than previous historic average. The recovery in the private sector demand looks more sustainable, Broadbent said. Similar comments came through BOE events on Super Thursday.
EUR/USD: fresh session highs despite weak data
The EUR/USD pair rose to a session high of 1.0949 even though industrial production figures across Europe showed a slowdown in the activity. The Euro managed to post modest gains even though the industrial production in Germany and France contracted. Moreover, the EUR bulls could have cheered the uptick in Spanish industrial production. The spot currently trades around 1.0940. The immediate resistance is seen at 1.0964 (50% of Mar-May rally), followed by a major hurdle at 1.10 handle. On the other hand, support is seen at 1.09 and 1.0848
| Important events and their explanation: |
| Time ( IST) | Currency | Economic Data | Expectation | Previous |
| 8:48am | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | ||
| 12:00pm | JPY | BOJ Press Conference | ||
| 2:00pm | GBP | Trade Balance | -9.1B | -8.4B |
| 6:00pm | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 222K | 223K | |
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.30% | 5.30% |
Explanation:- Out of the above events , GBP MPC Rate and US Unemployment are the most crucial one. We assume Britain’s Central bank will maintain status quo and unchanged the rate . Negative for GBP for a shorter term and US Unemployment figures would gonna increase. Negative for dollar and minor positive for INR.
| Quick Glance : |
| Instrument | Price | %Chg | Volume | OI |
| USD/INR | 63.7225 | -0.34 | 225718 | 924749 |
| EUR/INR | 70.8325 | -0.18 | 5484 | 48916 |
| GBP/INR | 99.06 | -0.12 | 2305 | 39072 |
| JPY/INR | 52.6 | -0.44 | 2174 | 15628 |
| Technical touch :
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As seen pair is trading near its crucial support of rising trend line in a 120 mins chart. Intrestingly its also forming a bearish flag pattern but tredline not yet pierced.
For the next few sessions we assume if pair pierced its 63.68/64 levels the next downside target would be 63.38 levels.
Support is expected to be around 63.40/50 levels and resistance 64.20/30 levels.