Category: Weekly Update

During the previous week in the COMEX market, prices of all the base metals such as Aluminum, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead and zinc rallied for the second week in a row as the bull sentiment remained intact in the commodity markets. As for precious metals Gold and Silver are concerned, both experienced a hit during the week, with Gold and silver losing 2.4% and 0.4% respectively, closing the week at $1,773.75 and $26.95 respectively.

Gold price touched 8 months low last week, weighed by the rise in US treasury yields and a strong dollar, and the Covid-19 vaccination drive. In the Indian markets, the fall in global rates and import duty cut in Budget has pushed gold prices lower. The investors’ appetite for riskier assets seems to have increased, due to which, they are moving towards more risky asset classes such as equities. Physical gold demand in the country has increased during the past week, due to fall in the prices.

Crude oil dipped during the last week, despite a sharp fall in US crude inventories, as the selling pressure weighed on the prices due to profit booking. Expectations of higher OPEC production, due to which, the supply is expected to increase, has also pressured the oil prices.

For the current week, gold and silver prices in global and domestic markets are expected to be highly volatile as the possibility of lockdown in some states of the country may weigh on the equity markets, which might make investors incline towards safe haven asset classes such as precious metals. However, the investors also need to look after some important economic data such as Fed Chair Powell’s Testification, US oil inventories and US Prelim GDP numbers. For the week, we expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1,850 to $1,700, while silver is expected to be in the range of $26.0 to $27.9. Whereas, for bullion market traders, we assume gold futures to trade in the range of 44,879 to 48,174.

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During the previous week in the COMEX market, prices of all the base metals such as Aluminum, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead and zinc rallied as the bulls made a comeback in the commodity markets. Iron Ore rose 7.1%, Copper, Aluminum and Zinc rose by more than 3.5%, and Lead rose 2.5% as compared to the previous week’s close. As for precious metals Gold and Silver are concerned, both inched higher during the week, with Gold rising by 0.5% and silver rising by 2.0%, closing the week at $1,818.00 and $27.07 respectively. Crude oil moved up by 4% during the week on the hope that the economic recovery will result in higher oil demand.

Gold and silver prices rose 2.2% and 4.2% respectively on Tuesday, supported by optimism on further clues from the US Federal Reserve regarding the interest rates. Investors also awaited clarity on the COVID relief bill that is in process, US-China trade talks and rising US-Iran tensions. However, the precious metals lost all its gains by the end of the week, weighed by a stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields. In Indian MCX markets, the upside movement in gold and silver has been capped by optimistic view by the Reserve Bank of India in its latest monetary policy meeting regarding the India economy.

For the current week, investors needs to keep an eye on economic data such as Eurozone’s Industrial production and Trade Balance on 15^th Feb, Eurozone’s Flash GDP on 16^th Feb, UK’s core CPI, US’ core retail sales, core PPI, Industrial Production, FOMC Meeting minutes on 17^th Feb, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US’ Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Crude Oil Inventories on 18^th Feb, UK’s retail sales, Eurozone’s, UK’s and US’ Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI on 19^th Feb. For the upcoming week, the correction in gold prices could help boost physical gold demand in India. Gold may continue to reflect trend in US dollar with focus on global virus situation as well as US stimulus and central bank monetary policy stance. We expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1,739 to $1,897, while silver is expected to be in the range of $22.7 to $31.4. Whereas, for bullion market traders, we assume gold futures to trade in the range of 45,236 to 51,183.

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During the current week, Nifty witnessed a highly volatile session, after breaking the trend line support at 15,160, after touching the high levels of 15,250 on the same day. It made the lows of 14,977, trading below 15,000 mark during the week. Sensex neared 52,000, touching 51,780 and it fell to 51,314 on the same day, witnessing a movement of around 466 points.

The market touched the high levels as it countersigned fund inflows from FIIs and FPIs. Better than expected quarterly result season also aided in uplifting the investors’ sentiments in the equity market. All the banking stocks have been continuing their uptrend, since a day before the RBI policy was announced, where, the RBI kept the rates unchanged as a plan to infuse liquidity in the market in order to revive the country’s economy from the adverse effect of COVID-19. However, the markets dipped as the investors started booking the profits, after the markets touched high levels.

The volatility in the market has been contributed by major global economic events such as US’ CPI inflation at part with the market expectations, better than expected crude oil inventory numbers, unemployment claims and Factory Orders, Eurozone’s and UK’s Final Services PMI and PPI, which supported the uptrend. Whereas, lower than expected UK’s construction PMI numbers, Eurozone’s Retail Sales, US’ Non-Farm Employment Change weighed on the equity markets.

As far as sectoral indices Nifty PSU Bank has gained as more as 8.3% in past 6 trading sessions, Nifty Metal has gained 5.0%, Nifty Realty gained 4.7%, Nifty Energy, Nifty Financial Services and Nifty Auto gained more than 2.5%, Nifty Pharma and Nifty FMCG gained more than 1.5% during the same period. Whereas, Nifty Media lost 3.3% during the same period.

For the upcoming week, 15,250 will be an important level to keep an eye at. We expect Nifty to be in the range of 15,000 – 14,882 – 14,800 to 15,250 – 15,285 – 15,380 for the week, whereas, we expect Bank Nifty to be in the range of 35,400 – 35,013 – 34,599 to 36,197 – 36,612 – 36,996.

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During the las week in the COMEX market, prices of all the base metals such as Aluminum, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead witnessed a downward trend, wherein, Iron Ore observed a steep fall of 10.8% as compared to the close prices of the week before. However, zinc gained by 1.4% during the same period. As far as precious metals Gold and Silver are concerned, both observed a downfall by 2.4% and 3.2%, closing at $1,808.55 and $26.53 respectively on Friday.

The prices of precious metals fell drastically last week due to the strengthening of Dollar and a surge in US Treasury yields, which increased the holding cost of precious metals in the hand of investors. Also, a loose monetary policy by most of the major central banks, suggesting more liquidity in the market, to revive the global economy, also had a negative impact on the precious metals.

A part from this, better than expected economic data such as UK’s Final Manufacturing PMI and Final Services PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, French Manufacturing PMI, Prelim CPI, and Trade Balance, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone’s Prelim Flash GDP, Financial Services PMI and PPI, US’ ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Financial Services PMI, ISM services PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims and ISM Manufacturing Prices also weighed on the precious metals.

For the current week, investors needs to keep an eye on economic data such as German Trade Balance, Italian Industrial Production on 9^th February, German Final CPI, French Industrial Production, US’ Core CPI, Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Chair Powell’s speech, and BOE Governor Bailey’s speech on 10^th February, German WPI, EU Economic Forecasts and US’ Unemployment Claims on 11^th February, UK’s Prelim GDP, Goods Trade Balance, Industrial and Manufacturing Production on 12^th February.

In the current week, we expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1,754 to $1,912, while silver is expected to be in the range of $23.9 to $31.8. Whereas, as per our prediction for bullion market traders, gold futures will trade in the range of 45,113 to 51,939.

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During the previous week in the COMEX market, base metals such as Aluminum, Zinc and Iron Ore witnessed low volatility, closing lower by more than 1%. Lead prices stayed unchanged for almost whole week, again closing almost at par. However, Silver continued to fall in the start of the week, but started its uptrend journey Thursday onwards. Whereas, Gold traded in the range of 1,853 to 1,856, ending the week unchanged.

During the week, Silver made a tragic comeback, gaining more than 8% after the prices rallied on Friday, as the traders piled into silver on short squeeze sparked by Reddit posters call. The entire market – from miners’ shares to exchange-traded funds and even the physical metal – has emerged as one of the latest targets of investors. Posts encouraged people to pile into IShares Silver Trust, the largest silver exchange-traded fund, and one described it as “THE BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE IN THE WORLD.”

Prices of gold inched higher a bit during the week after the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Budget 2021 proposals said that the government will rationalize customs duty on gold and silver. Currently, gold attracts 12.5% import duty. The government announced cut in customs duty on gold and silver to 7.5% from 12.5%. Indian imports bulk of its gold and silver requirements.

The precious metals were also supported as the European equities witnessed a retreat as the region fight over COVID-19 vaccine supply, alongside increasing number of COVID-19 cases. However, the gains in the precious metals was capped after the release of better than expected economic data of UK, France, Germany and Spain.

For the current week, investors needs to keep a watch on economic data such as Eurozone’s Final Manufacturing PMI, UK’s Final Manufacturing PMI, US’ Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, on 1^st February, US’, Eurozone’s and UK’s Final Services PMI, Eurozone’s PPI, US’ Crude Oil Inventories on 2^nd February, UK’s Asset Purchase Facility, BOE Monetary Policy Report, BOE Gov Bailey’s speech on 4^th February and US’s unemployment rate on 5^th February.

In the current week, we expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1,799 to $1,908, while silver is expected to be in the range of $24.5 to $31.5. Whereas, as per our prediction for bullion market traders, gold futures will trade in the range of 47,007 to 51,714.

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During the previous week, Nifty witnessed a steep fall, going below the levels of 14,000 and nearing 13,700. The market has remained highly volatile, with Nifty and Sensex countersigning a movement of around 310 and 1,118 points respectively in a single day on 27^th January. On 21^st January, Sensex crossed 50,000 mark for the first time in the history, to reach 50,184 and touched the lows of 47,270 on 27^th January.

Many events have played a major role which has resulted in a highly volatile market. Investors had mixed sentiments due to a mixed corporate results season. They were highly disappointed by the Reliance’s quarterly result, which resulted in sell-off of the script, dragging the markets to its lows. Additionally, monthly F/O expiry also weighed on the markets. Budget has also been one of the main reasons for high volatility. Also, the India’s volatility index has increased from 18 in mid-December to 25 in the last week. The markets have also been witnessing selling pressure from FIIs, and FPIs since a week, due to weak global cues. Additionally, the farmers’ protest which has been going on since last five months, has been having a worse effect on the economic activity of our country, which has impacted equity markets.

Major Economic events such as lower than expected UK’s retail sales, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, French Flash Services PMI, US’ crude oil inventories and Durable Goods Orders weighed on the equity markets. However, the losses were limited to some extent, after the investors’ sentiments were lifted a bit after the release of better than expected US’ unemployment claims numbers, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI and Eurozone’s Flash Services PMI.

As far as sectoral indices are concerned, all the indices were in red during the previous week, with Nifty Metals, Nifty Energy and Nifty Private Bank indices being the worst performers, losing around 6.2% each. Nifty Financial Services, Nifty PSU Banks and Nifty Realty lost more than 5% each, whereas, Nifty Auto, Nifty Pharma and Nifty IT indices fell by more than 1.5% each.

For the upcoming week, the equity market is expected to witness the highest volatility, as compared to past few weeks, ahead of the budget. We expect Nifty to be in the range of 14,662 to 13,000 for the week, whereas, we expect Bank Nifty to be in the range of 31,821 to 27,989.

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During the previous week in the COMEX market, prices of base metals such as Aluminum, Zinc, Iron Ore, and Lead continued its downward journey for the second consecutive week. However, Gold and Silver witnessed kind of a volatile weekly session, but gold managed to close almost at par, whereas silver gained marginally by 0.3% as compared to the previous week.

During the week, gold and silver reached highs of $1,874 and $26.1 respectively in the COMEX market, as the US President Joe Biden was preparing to be sworn into office as the 46th President and had declared his intentions to inject more stimulus ($ 1.9 trillion) to the country’s economy, which will revive the economic growth. As a result, the dollar index weakened 0.16% to 90.323 while the yield on 10-year Treasuries held at 1.08%. Gold and silver are considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement that can result from stimulus measures, which explains the rise in the prices. Additionally, increase in new COVID-19 cases in the US and Canada, has also been supporting the prices of precious metals.

However, during the week, the precious metals prices lost all its gains after the COMEX market witnessed major profit booking by the investors in the following trading sessions. Also, the dollar index gained on the back of better than expected economic data for the US economy, such as Unemployment Claims, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Flash manufacturing and services PMI, which further resulted in the fall of precious metals prices.

For the current week, investors will have to keep a watch on certain global economic data such as US’ CB Consumer Confidence on 26^th January, 2021, US’ crude oil inventories, FOMC’s statement and Federal Funds Rate on 27^th January, 2021, US’ Advance GDP QoQ, Unemployment claims and goods trade balance on 28^th January, 2021. Along with these data, development relating to virus outbreak and vaccine progress, trend in US dollar and more clarity on polices from Biden administration may continue to remain key price determining factor for gold and silver.

In the current week, we expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1,912 to $1,787, while silver is expected to be in the range of $26.9 to $23.3. Whereas, as per our prediction for bullion market traders, gold futures will trade in the range of 46,983 to 51,826.

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During the last week, prices of base metals like zinc, lead, and copper rose as the bulls made a comeback. Whereas, the prices of gold and silver hit the bottom by dipping 2% and 2.3%. Gold slipped below $1,900 mark during the week to close at $1,891.3 and silver slipped below its $27 to close at $26.645. In the initial days of the week, both the metals were on a rising trend due to the political uncertainty in the US Senate. In addition, numbers of the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change fell by 123,000 for the month of December 2020, which is much lower than the expectations of +60,000. That too helped in the uplift. However, as the US Political tensions subsided a bit after the Democrats won two seats in the Senate, the Gold prices made a sharp decline.

As per the media reports, Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine proved effective in the UK and South Africa against a key mutant of the new variant of corona virus, which is highly transmissible. This news also weighed on the gold and silver prices. Along with these factors, the US Treasury yields soared above 1% earlier in the week, which also had a negative impact on gold and silver prices. The US Dollar traded higher at 89.85 against the basket of six currencies.

During the current week, important economic data such as US’ 10-year bond auction on 12^th January, Eurozone’s Industrial Production for the month of November 2020 and US’ 30-year old auction on 13^th January, US’ unemployment claims on 14^th January, UK’s GDP for the month of December 2020, UK’s industrial production and manufacturing production for the month of November 2020, and US’ industrial production for the month of December 2020 on 15^th January, will be released. Investors need to keep an eye on these data for the week as they can have an effect on both, base metals commodities and bullion market commodities.

In the current week, we expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1,922 to $1,769, while silver is expected to be in the range of $26.8 to $19.6. Whereas, as per our prediction for bullion market traders, in gold contract futures, we advise to enter at the price of 48,100 with a stop loss of 46,955 and a target of 51,300.

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During the first week of the calendar year 2020, market has remained volatile, by steeping to the low levels of 48,174 and touching the high of 48,616. At the start of the week, both the indices were soaring, as the investors sentiments were boosted supported by the positive global cues, such as, US unemployment claims, Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), Factory Orders, UK’s data including Final Manufacturing PMI and M4 Money Supply, Euro zone’s Retail Sales, Unemployment change, M3 Money Supply, Services PMI, Producer Price Index (PPI), which came in better than expected.

As far as domestic data is concerned, Market Manufacturing PMI and Export numbers for the month of December 2020 were better than consensus expectations, which also supported the bull sentiments. Additionally, the Indian government gave approval to two of the COVID-19 vaccines for the country, which is again a positive sign for the economy. However, the gains were capped after the imports of the country for the month of December 2020 also increased, resulting into decreasing the trade balance numbers, which came in below the consensus expectations.

In the US, on Wednesday, it was decided that Democrats and Republicans will resume the process of counting the Electoral College votes that will certify President-elect Joe Biden’s victory. President Trump’s supporters left a rally where he was speaking and stormed the US Capitol, breaching the Senate chamber and forcing Congress to halt the certification of the Electoral College vote for President-elect Joe Biden on Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021. The global markets soaked, after the investors feared ahead of this US political uncertainty, and so did our domestic markets. However, on Thursday morning, the Indian markets advanced after democrats took control of the Senate, following key elections.

As for the sectoral indices’ overall performance during the week, Bank Nifty, Nifty IT, Nifty Media and Nifty Metal were the outperformers, which increased by an average of around more than 0.5%, out of which, IT and Metal stocks increased by around >1%. However, for the week, FMCG stocks were the underperformers.

For the upcoming week, we expect higher volatility in the market ahead of the global cues. India VIX has also been on the up-move. We expect Nifty to remain in the range of 13,658 to 14,700, whereas, we expect Sensex to remain in the range of 47,214 to 49,459.

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ગત સપ્તાહે બેસમેટલ માર્કેટ મા કોપર, લીડ, ઝીંક જેવી કોમોડિટી ઓ મા ઉપર ના મથાળે થી પ્રોફિટ બુકીંગ જોવા મળ્યું હતું જયારે સોના-ચાંદી ના ભાવો મા એક હળવાશ વાળું વાતાવરણ જોવા મળ્યું હતું. તેની પાછળ નું મુખ્ય કારણ તાજેતર મા આવેલા ચાઈના તરફથી આવેલા નવેમ્બર  મહિના ના મેનુફેક્ચરિંગ સર્વિસ ઈન્ડેક્સ ના આંકડા જે ૫૨.૧ ની સામે ૫૧.૯ ના સ્તર પર આવયા  હતા અને તેની સાથે સાથે ડોલર ઈન્ડેક્સ જે બે વર્ષ ના તળિયે પહોંચ્યો તેને સોના-ચાંદી ના ભાવ ને એક પેરીટી સપોર્ટ પણ આપ્યો હતો. તાજેતર ના એક આંકડા પ્રમાણે ચાઈના તરફથી ૨૦૨૦ મા કોપર કોમોડિટી નો ઈમ્પોર્ટ અંદાજે ૪૦ ટકા નો વધારો નોંધાયો હતો ૨૦૧૯ ના વર્ષ પ્રમાણે જેના કારણે આપણને વૈશ્વિક બજાર મા એલએમી માર્કેટ મા કોપર ના ભાવ અંદાજે $૮૦૦૦/per tonne ના એક સેન્ટિમેન્ટલ આંકડા ને સ્પર્શી ચુક્યો હતો.  ચાલુ સપ્તાહે યુરોપ તરફથી મેનુફેક્ચરિંગ ઈન્ડેક્સ ના આંકડા આવશે, તેના સિવાય ઓપેક ની મિટિંગ પણ ૪-જાન્યુઆરી એ રહેશે, ૬-જાન્યુઆરી એ યુ.એસ. તરફથી ADP  નોન-ફાર્મ ના ડેટા તેના ઉપરાંત ૭-જાન્યુઆરી એ એક સાથે ઘણા મહત્વ ના ઇકોનોમિક ડેટા જેમ કે યુ.એસ. તરફથી ISM – નોન-મેન્ફ્યુફેકરીંગ , નોનફાર્મ પેયરોલ્સ અને બેરોજગારી ના આંકડા જાહેર થશે તો ચાલુ સપ્તાહ ઇકોનોમિક ડેટા પ્રમાણે બેસેમેટલ કોમોડિટી, બુલિયન માર્કેટ કોમોડિટી બંને પ્રકાર ની કોમોડિટી ના ટ્રેન્ડ માટે મહત્વ રૂપ સાબિત થશે. કોમેક્સ બજાર મા ગોલ્ડ અમારા મત પ્રમાણે $૧૮૨૫ થી લઈને $૧૯૫૦ ની રેન્જ મા રહી શકે જયારે સિલ્વર કોમોડિટી અંદાજે $૨૪.૨૦ થી લઈને $૨૭.૮૦ ની રેન્જ મા રહી શકે છે. ચાલુ સપ્તાહે અમારા માટે પ્રમાણે બુલિયન માર્કેટ ના ટ્રેડરો માટે , ગોલ્ડ ના ફ્યુચર કોન્ટ્રાક્ટ મા ખરીદી કરવાની સલાહ રહેશે જેમાં ૫૦૧૪૦ પાસે એન્ટ્રી લેવાની જેનો સ્ટોપલોસ્સ ૪૯૮૬૦ નો અને ટાર્ગેટ ૫૦૬૭૦ નો રહેશે. અમારા મત પ્રમાણે ગોલ્ડ કોમોડિટી મા ચાલુ સપ્તાહે મા ઓવરઓલ રીતે એક મજબૂતી જળવાય રહેશે અને ઘટાડે પણ ખરીદી ની સલાહ રહેશે.

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