Category: Weekly Update

In the previous week, bulls were seen returning to the Comex after weeks of directionless trading and mixed sentiments, with all base metals including Aluminum (2.5%), Copper (2.7%), Lead (1.4%) , Zinc (2.2%) and Iron ore (1.7%) ending in green and starting new possible uptrends. Precious metals, gold and silver were no exceptions and both experienced significant buying pressure.

Gold and Silver prices showed an up move as interest in investing in bullion as a hedge against inflation and possible correction in the equities markets continued to increase amongst investors. All eyes are currently on the US markets as Joe Biden has guaranteed increased expenditure on clean energy and electric vehicles under the new stimulus. This is set to further benefit the commodities prices as demand for base metals and bullion might increase. The dollar and US bond yields, however, managed to hold firm, keeping pressure on commodities.

Crude Oil prices continued with its sideways movement and remained range bound throughout the past week. The volatility is the result of a few factors like increased concerns related to renewed lockdowns in parts of the world to curd rising Covid-19 cases, OPEC+ extending output cuts to April 2021 and better-than expected economic forecast from Federal Reserve backed by vaccine drives. The prices are expected to remain choppy in the coming week however a bias might be on the downside owing to a higher supply and weakening demand concerns. 

For the current week, we expect gold and silver to trade in sideways and remain range bound throughout the week. Investors are advised to closely track the USD-INR rates as a correction in dollar can act in the favour of bullion prices and might lead to a new uptrend. Weakness in the Indian markets and a selloff is also set to be positive for the prices. However, increasing US Bond yields due to strong economic data and rising inflation can dampen this new found momentum in the commodities market.

For the week, we expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1696 to $1,823, while silver is expected to be in the range of $24.1 to $25.9. Whereas, for bullion market traders, we assume gold futures to trade in the range of 45,738 to 47,982.

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During the previous week, both the benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex witnessed a highly volatile session, ending the weekly session in red. Nifty and Sensex traded in the range of 14,459 and 14,882, and 48,580 and 50,092 respectively. During the week, bulls tried to take control of the market, but failed to do so.

The equity markets witnessed a weakened investor sentiments due to continuation in rising COVID-19 cases throughout the world, and especially due to a higher pace of rise in the number of cases in India. Stringent lockdown rules have been announced by the state governments, whereas, lockdown period has been extended for the states which were already experiencing lockdown and night curfew. This has weakened the investors’ sentiments.

However, the investor sentiments were boosted on Wednesday, after the announcement of RBI Policy, where the bank rates have been kept unchanged, as a remedy to revive the economy of the country by the way of liquidity infusion. The MPC committee has been keeping the rates unchanged since past 5 meetings. Bank Nifty welcomed the Policy outcome with open arms.

As far as sectoral indices are concerned, Nifty IT, Nifty Metal and Nifty Pharma stocks ended in green during the week, gaining more than 2% each, whereas, all the other sectoral indices ended the week in red. Nifty Private Bank, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Media and Nifty Financial Services were the worst performers of the week, losing more than 2% each.

For the upcoming week, the equity markets are expected to react on the new lockdown rules announced by the government and the change in number of COVID-19 cases. If the cases do not subside, the rules might get more stringent and have a negative effect on the equity market. Technically, for Nifty, 14,880 will be a critical level for the week. It should sustain above that level to confirm its bullish trend. On the upper side, it might see 15,300 levels. If it falls below 14,880, we might see it falling to 14,389.

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In the previous week, base metals witnessed a steep fall in the prices, with aluminum and copper falling by approximately 2% each and zinc lost 1.5%. However, lead witnessed net buyers during the week, and managed to close in green, snapping the losses of past two weeks, gaining 0.2%. As far as precious metals are concerned, gold and silver continued their downtrend, by losing 0.7% and 3.0% respectively during the week.

The prices of precious metals took a hit during the week as a surge in vaccine roll-outs all over the world has lifted the investors’ sentiments. Moreover, surge in US bond yields and a stronger dollar also weighed gold and silver prices. However, the losses were capped after the US President Joe Biden announced ‘”once-in-a-generation” infra investment plan of more than USD 2 trillion in transportation, telecoms and energy infrastructure, which had a positive impact on gold prices as it is often considered as hedge against inflationary pressure.

Brent prices rose during past week, after the release of lower US crude oil inventories data and on the hopes that the OPEC+ members will maintain the production cut till May. However, in the current week, the prices have started to fall after the OPEC+ agreed last week to gradually ease production curbs by 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May, another 350,000 bpd in June and further 400,000 bpd or so in July.

For the current week, we expect the gold and silver prices to trade in sideways to positive trend supported by weak equity markets ahead of COVID-19 fears. The prices of precious metals might also be supported by the inflationary pressure in the US markets due to infra investment plan unveiled by the US government.

For the week, we expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1,672 to $1,821, while silver is expected to be in the range of $23.7 to $25.4. Whereas, for bullion market traders, we assume gold mini futures to trade in the range of 44,698 to 46,197.

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During the previous week, both the benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex witnessed a bloodbath, as they nosedived to touch the low levels of 14,350 and 48,586 last Friday. India VIX also witnessed a highly volatile session, making the lows of 16.68 and highs of 23 during the week.

The equity markets witnessed a steep fall as the investors were concerned about increasing daily cases of COVID-19 with new variants throughout the country. The situation lead to uncertainty regarding lockdown in several parts of the country, after the Maharashtra government announced a complete lockdown in some cities till a stipulated date. A part from that, mixed cues from Asian peers which saw volatility owing to rising bond yields and uncertainty around inflation also weighed the markets. The fall in the value of the Turkish Markets after the firing of the central bank governor, also had an impact on Indian markets and added to the volatility.

As far as sectoral indices are concerned, almost all the indices ended in red during the week, except for Nifty Pharma (+2.1%), Nifty IT (+0.9%) and Nifty Realty (+0.7%). Nifty Media and Nifty Metal lost more than 3% each, Nifty Financial Services, Nifty Private Bank and Nifty Auto fell by more than 2% each, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Energy fell by more than 1% each during the week.

There was a fall of 5.1% in March Series, the second highest after a fall of around 6% in the September Series. Technically, Nifty needs to sustain above the levels of 14,490 to indicate bullish trend and we may see it nearing the levels of 15,500 in the near future. However, if the indices breaks the levels of 13,900 and sustains below that, then it confirms a bearish trend.

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beelinebroking #commodity #trading #investing #daytrader #gold #silver #metals #investment #finance #Crude #CrudeOil #Brent #WTI #Copper #IronOre #PreciousMetals #success #money #commoditytrading #NavGujaratSamay #NGS

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In the previous week, base metals witnessed a mix weekly session, where, Aluminum (-1.2%), Iron Ore (-2.5%) and Lead (-4.4%) closed in red for the second consecutive week, while Copper (+0.5%) and Zinc (+1.4%) managed to closed in green, recovering the losses of the week before. Precious metals gold and silver rose by 0.5% each during the week, snapping its loss streak.

International WTI Crude oil prices increased during the previous week, after the release of US crude inventories, which indicated a steep fall in the inventories. However, the gains in the prices was limited due to an optimistic forecast for global economic recovery. OPEC is not expected to increase the crude oil supply in next one month, which may result a further rise in the crude prices. The traders needs to keep an eye on the crude oil inventories data, which will be released on 17^th March.

Gold and silver gained marginally during the previous week, witnessing a high volatility. Gold touched the lows of $1,677.8 and high of $1,739.4 during the week. The precious metals were marginally higher as the passage of a US stimulus bill raised concerns over inflation risks. However, higher US bond yields, which remained near their highest in more than a year, capped the precious metals’ gains.

For the current week, we expect the gold and silver prices to continue its uptrend, as a strong sell-off in the equity markets might encourage the investors to incline towards safe haven asset classes like precious metals. Investors also need to keep an eye on some important global economic data such as US’ Core Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FOMC Statement, UK’s monetary policy, and ECB President Lagarde’s speech.

For the week, we expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1,627 to $1,792, while silver is expected to be in the range of $24.9 to $26.9. Whereas, for bullion market traders, we assume gold mini futures to trade in the range of 43,768 – 42,239 to 45,216 – 45,983.

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During the previous weekly trading session, equity markets witnessed a high volatility in the start of the week and then started to trade sideways to marginally positive as the investors didn’t get a clear indication regarding the trend of the market. Sensex and Nifty touched the lows of 50,318 and 14,920 on Monday and Highs of 51,430 and 15,218 respectively on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the investors were not keen to carry positions due to the bank holiday on Thursday.

The markets are on their way to recover the losses of the previous week’s trading session, but at a slower pace. India’s Markit Services PMI numbers for the month of February 2021 came in better than expected, which uplifted the investors’ sentiments, as it indicates improvement in economic health of the country. Also, because of mixed global cues, the market failed to give any clear indications for the trend. Equity markets seems to be in a consolidation phase.

As far as sectoral indices are concerned, Bank Nifty gained more than 2% during the week, with Private Banks and PSU Banks gaining approximately 2.0% and 0.5% respectively. The rise in private banks was after the announcement of our Financial Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, that the embargo on private banks was lifted up, which means that now eve private banks can carry out government-related banking transactions such as taxes and other revenue payment facilities. Nifty Financial Services also gained more than 2.1%. Nifty IT gained 3.1%, Nifty Pharma gained 1.0%, whereas, Nifty FMCG, Nifty Metal and Nifty Auto hardly managed to closed in green. Nifty Energy (-0.5%), Nifty Media (-0.1%) and Nifty Realty (-1.5%) lost during the week.

For the upcoming week, the equity market is expected to come out of its consolidation phase. Investors need to keep an eye on India’s industrial production data, WPI manufacturing data, Inflation rate data which will be released in the upcoming week as they will affect the equity markets. Technically, indices needs to sustain above the levels of 15,180/51,275 to confirm its bullish trend and we may see Nifty nearing the levels of 15,300 in the near future. However, if the indices breaks the levels of 15,000 and sustains below that, then it confirms a bearish trend.

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In the previous week, all base metals including Aluminum (-1.5%), Copper (-4.2%), Lead (-4.4%) and Zinc (-2.9%) closed in red, snapping its three weeks’ winning streak, with bears taking over the control of commodities’ market. Iron ore stood out of the pack, gaining by 2.6% during the week. Precious metals, gold and silver also kept retreating during the whole week, losing 3.9% and 5% respectively.

Gold and silver have been experiencing a bloodbath since the announcement of Union Budget 2021. Both the precious metals has been continuously witnessing a selling pressure, weighed by the growth outlook, which is becoming optimistic for the global economy. Alongside, with the interest rate also getting stagnant, investors have started exiting their positions in bullion markets and are diversifying their investments in better opportunities, which has triggered a fall in the bullion prices.

International Crude oil prices rallied last week, after OPEC and its allies ignored India’s plea to ease production control, with Saudi Arabia asking New Delhi to instead use oil it bought at cheap rates last year. OPEC plus nations agreed to keep output quota unchanged in April, when the market was expecting some ease in output cuts of around 1.5 MB per day. Crude oil prices are expected to trade in sideways to positive trend in the current week. However, the traders needs to keep an eye on the crude oil inventories data, which will be released on 10^th March.

For the current week, we expect gold and silver to trade in sideways to negative momentum, as the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell failed to reassure investors that central bank policymakers would keep surging bond yields and inflation expectations under control. Along with this, the investors also need to keep a watch on some important economic data such as Europe’s and UK’s GDP, Europe’s PPI and US’ PPI.

For the week, we expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1,603 to $1,750, while silver is expected to be in the range of $24.7 to $27.1. Whereas, for bullion market traders, we assume gold futures to trade in the range of 43,268 – 42,997 to 46,876 – 47,012.

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Prices of base metals such as Aluminum (+4.1%), Copper (+9.2%), Iron Ore (+0.7%), Lead (+1.7%) and Zinc (+1.1%) continued its uptrend for the third consecutive week, with bulls making their mark in the COMEX Market on the back of buoyant demand. As for precious metals, both, gold and silver rallied on Monday and Tuesday, however, they lost all the gains during the rest of the week, losing 0.5% and 1.0% respectively as compared to the closing prices of the week before.

Gold and Silver made new lows of $1,734 and $26.67 respectively on Friday as the 10 year US bond yields continued to rise, returning to the pre-pandemic levels of last year after FED Chairman vowed to keep the accommodative policy to support economic recovery. US Dollar as well continued to become stronger, being the best alternative to gold amid a crash in equity indices in the second half of the week.

Crude oil prices reached to the highest levels in more than 11 months on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve assured that interest rates would stay low for a while and also supported by lower crude production in the US, after a rare winter storm in Texas. However, the prices are expected to weaken, as the OPEC Plus group will discuss a modest easing of oil supply curbs from April.

We expect the precious metal prices to trade volatile in sideways to marginally negative trend in the current week. The investors will have to keep an eye on the most important data – the Non-farm Payrolls report and the Average Hourly Earnings portion during the week, which has an inverse relationship with gold. Along with that, the COVID-19 vaccination drive expansion may also continue to weigh on gold and silver.

For the week, we expect gold in COMEX market to be in the range of $1,680 to $1,790, while silver is expected to be in the range of $26.2 to $28.0. Whereas, for bullion market traders, we assume gold futures to trade in the range of 45,550 – 45,300 to 46,500 – 46,800.

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