Category: market sentiment

Morning Business News Round Up_March 20, 2018

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Sebi exempts govt from open offers for six PSBs

Manufacturing cos Q3 sales up, profit subdued: RBI

Videocon to exit insurance biz, sell entire stake

No FDI in defence, ports, coal in Apr-Dec: Govt

Bring model scheme for construction workers: SC

DoT increases spectrum cap, installments for payments

‘No new bank guarantee from Axis Bank to be accepted’

UltraTech to pay Rs 73 bn for 98% stake in Binani Cement, NCLT nod awaited

India has not signed any free trade agreement in last 3 yrs: Govt

RP places Rs 67-bn plan by Dalmia Bharat Cement for approval before NCLT

Manufacturing companies’ sales improve in Q3, profit subdued: RBI

IOCL to commission Rs 30 bn polypropylene facility in six months

UltraTech to buy Binani Cement, seeks end to insolvency proceedings

New FSSAI norms will curb organic farming growth?

L&T set to win EPC contract for new dry dock in Kochi

Centre invites EoI for stake sale in Scooters India

IRB Infra bags road project worth Rs 2,043 cr from NHAI in Gujarat

Suzlon bags 500 MW wind energy projects through SECI bids

Insider info: Sebi moves to plug WhatsApp leaks

Future Retail gets RBI nod to increase RFPI to 49%

Uttam Galva offers 51% of outstanding loan to avoid asset auction

Hindustan Aeronautics IPO subscribed 45% on Day 2

Supreme Court upholds sale of Park Hyatt Goa to ITC

RCom moves SC against Bombay HC, NCLT orders barring sale of assets

India, Hong Kong shake hands to avoid double taxation

India’s domestic air passenger traffic on the rise, up 24% in February

Bhel commissions Ist unit of Kishanganga hydro project in Jammu and Kashmir

Alibaba to invest extra $2 billion in Lazada Group in aggressive Southeast Asian expansion

Bandhan Bank IPO subscribed 14.63 times

ED moves HC against acquittal of Raja, Kanimozhi in 2G case

Lemon Tree Hotels sets price band at Rs 54-Rs 56

CBI charge sheet against ex-CMD of Canara Bank CMD in Rs 68 cr loan case

Suzlon to build TWO wind projects in Gujarat

Morning Business News Round Up_March 16, 2018

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Govt for PSBs’ stability first, consolidation later

Jio adjusted gross revenue up 21.3% at Rs 5,300 cr

India to engage with US on export subsidies

Trai issues notice to Airtel for violating order

‘India offers Rs 1L-cr biz in bio-fuel, bio-energy’

Feb trade deficit at $12 billion, exports grow 4.5%

Govt plans to bar 91 defaulters from leaving India

GIC Re to start London operations next month

Merger with associate banks led to higher account closure this year: SBI

Govt not to extend March 31 deadline for selling pre-GST packaged goods

LS passes bill to enable govt to double tax-free gratuity to Rs 2 mn

TN govt to focus on aerospace, defence sectors to get Rs 100 bn investment

ICICI Securities Rs 40-bn IPO to open on March 22; price band at Rs 519-520

India to approach USTR against steel, aluminium tariffs

Image result for Suzlon indiaSuzlon commissions 340 MW solar projects

M.P. begins wheat purchase atRs.2,000/quintal

Rosy Blue Group has not defaulted on any bank loan: Mehta

Calderys India Refractories eyeing 25% capacity expansion

Goa mining industry stares at uncertainty

GST one of the most complex, and second highest tax rate in world: World Bank

Air India made Rs543.03 cr from asset monetisation: Govt

Infosys to open technology and innovation hub in Connecticut, US

Fortis Healthcare suitors look to buy shares from public, banks

Air India sale: Singapore Airlines has open mind on making a bid

Shipping ministry for bringing MTOs under self-regulation

PF: PPF accounts to remain immune from attachment

CREDAI seeks cut in GST; bank financing to buy land for low-cost home

CBI arrests RP Info System directors in Rs 515 cr bank fraud

PSBs to link SWIFT with Core Banking Solution by April 30

Currency derivative trade limit raised to $100m from $15m

CBEC field offices observe GST refund fortnight for exporters

More 4G spectrum for BSNL, revival plan for MTNL: Sinha

Trade deficit narrows to $12 billion in Feb

Banks to establish robust risk management system soon

Morning Business News Round Up_March 7, 2018

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Govt to consult ONGC, OIL before auctioning fields

Nirav Modi’s firm moves HC against ED case.

Banks to collect passport details of bigwigs in 45 days

Image result for E-way billE-way bill must for goods movement from June 1

Bhushan Power resolution plan by month-end, says IRP

Commercial coal mining can cut import bill by Rs 30K cr

Commerce Min to devise strategy on product standards

States’ debt woes to bloat India’s budget gap: Oxford Economics

Government banks wrote off Rs 816.83 billion loans in FY17: Arun Jaitley

PNB fraud: SFIO to quiz ICICI’s Chanda Kochhar, Axis Bank’s Shikha Sharma

Tata Sons proposes to buy entire stake of Tata Trusts in Indian Hotels

Moody’s upgrades JSW Steel’s corporate family rating to Ba2 from Ba3

Indian economy to recover gradually to 7.1% in FY2019

Finance Ministry to coax Fitch for rating upgrade

FinMin keeping close tabs on outgo, receipts

BG-II cottonseed prices set to drop this season

TVS Logistics moves into construction sector

NFRA to have power to impose penalty on erring audit firms

PNB fraud likely to swell beyond $2 billion mark

Karti Chidambaram gets three more days CBI custody in INX Media case

Withdraw defamation notice and apologize, COAI tells Reliance Jio

Airtel acquires India leg of GBI submarine cable

RBI increases FPI limit in UltraTech Cement to 40%

India to topple China yet again as fastest growing economy, and this time for 5 years

Input-Output model reveals real picture of economic growth

PNB has potential to raise capital, says Arun Jaitley

ONGC Videsh signs pact with Iran?s IDRO Oil to jointly bid for $1 bn contract for developing Susangerd oilfield

Regulatory reforms can help create 10 million jobs

Bandhan Bank gets Sebi nod for Rs 2,500-cr IPO

GST, price hike slow solar commissioning

New product to replace SGX-Nifty likely by May

RBI may give Rs 10,000 cr as interim dividend

Morning Business News Round Up_March 5, 2018

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SBI tightens lending, won’t fund interest payments

India to remain fastest growing economy: FM

Create sub-targets for PSL: RBI to MNC banks

PNB: NCLT bars over 60 entities from selling assets

GMR-M submits proposal for Manila airport expansion

Saudi ‘s $16bn syndicated loan cuts funding costs

Indian M&E industry to reach Rs 2 tn by 2020: Report

India 12th largest overseas holder of US securities in 2017 at $147.4 bn

359 infrastructure projects show cost overrun of Rs 2.05 trillion: Report

Five more public sector banks on brink of prompt corrective action: Icra

PNB scam fallout: Trade finance hit as caution prevails, premium soars

PSBs write off Rs 5.16-bn NPAs of 38 wilful defaulters in H1FY18

Proxy advisory firm questions exemptions in Rs 369-bn ONGC-HPCL deal

Skill India Mission to impart training for jobs overseas

Challenges aplenty in enabling DBT in farm sector: NITI Aayog

Russia’s VTB Capital says it can bid more for Essar Steel

NCLT admits SBI’s insolvency proceedings against IVRCL

Image result for GoldGold recovers after US tariff announcement

DRI initiates prosecution against Nirav Modi

RBI gets tough on MNC banks on priority sector lending

4.4 lakh unsold homes in 7 big cities at 2017 end: JLL India

Sterlite Power to invest $10 billion in transmission lines in 4 years

Axa is said to be in advanced talks to buy insurer XL Group

ArcelorMittal stands by $1 billion Mexico pledge despite trade threats

Challenging target: Tough year ahead for disinvestment

World’s 500 richest people have lost combined 107 billion USD this week

RBI gets tough on MNC banks, asks them to create sub-targets to meet PSL norms

Tea production up 9.47% in December

Private sector investment is likely to remain sluggish this year

Sebi may seek urgent disclosure of substantial’ loan defaults

6.5-7% growth rate is very reasonable: NITI

Morning Business News Round Up_March 1, 2018

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Modi govt’s asset monetisation drive gets a huge Australian boost

‘Q3 marks India’s return as fastest growing economy’

Airtel wants to get out of towers, committed to Africa

Currency in circulation almost at pre-note ban levels

New LTCG tax: ESOPs may not get ‘grandfathering’

Canara Bank files fresh complaint against RP Infosystem

Reliance Aerostructure-Thales JV gets CCI approval

Bayer to win EU approval for Monsanto deal: Sources

Bank guarantee limit for pulses & oilseeds for Nafed doubled to Rs 190 bn

Nirav Modi refuses to join CBI investigations in PNB scam case: Officials

Govt announces Rs 50 bn fund to jumpstart growth in 12 key services sectors

Jan core sector growth sharply rises to 6.7%; cement, refinery output zoom

Ex-RBI governor Subbarao cautions govt against deficit, import duties

April-Jan fiscal deficit touches 113.7% of full-year target

Goa mining ban yanks down India investment ranking: Report

Image result for SBISBI hikes deposit rates by up to 50 bps across tenors

Economy to grow at 7.6% in calendar year 2018: Moody’s

Dilip Buildcon wins Rs 2,013-cr highway project

Luxury market on course to touch $30 bn by December

BHEL pays 40% interim dividend

I-T dept issues look out circulars against Nirav Modi, Mehul Choksi

Rel Jio prepares strong rural push to boost?Jio Phone sales

INX Media case: CBI gets one-day custody of Karti Chidambaram

DLF arm to buy Gurugram land for Rs1,496 crore

BSE to delist 36 companies from 5 March

Cipla ties up with Roche to sell two key drugs in India

Smriti Irani suggests using jute in infrastructure, smart city projects

Former RBI governor D Subbarao cautions India on deficit, import duties

India needs to evolve into a pensioned and insured society, says Arun Jaitley

15th Finance Commission to commission study on cess collections of Centre

Housing finance firms set to overtake PSBs in home loans

India falls out of mining investment destination list

Economy grows 7.2% in Q3, sigh of relief for Modi govt

L&T to sell 2% stake in L&T Technology

A Rising Rates Cycle

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A Rising Rates Cycle

The down trend line adjoining 1988 top has been broken out indicating big reversal in falling rate cycle. Since hitting an all-time of 15.84 percent in September 1981, the yield on the U.S. 10-year has been steadily declining. The US 10 year Treasury bond yield formed bottom at 1.3180 in July 06, 2016 and touched high of 2.9424 on February 15, 2018. The yield price almost doubled in last 1 ½ years, entering in a phase not seen in 72 years.

Historical analysis suggest that Interest rate cycles are longer, typically stretching 22 to 37 years. This new rate cycle could last at least two decades, introducing a whole new class of investors to rising rates. This meant a lot for all as rise in interest rate would directly or indirectly raise the cost of goods and services. This is might be the first sign of rising inflation on global front which will lead to change in sentiment/ behavior of global financial market. The people likely to reduce exposure in equity market and will move towards bond as real interest rates would be higher.

Hope Still Alive

The correlation between S&P 500 and US 10 year yield remains positive below 4% while concern rises once the yield starts moving above 4.50%. As bond market discounts four rate hikes for 2018, some experts believe the recent development would lead to end of bull market in equity market. With rising interest rate and unwinding of easy liquidities would impact emerging market (EM) equities. The foreign fund likely to move from EM to DM, as real interest would rise along with growth in economy attracts better valuation for their equity as well.

Morning Business News Round Up_Feb 19, 2018

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Glitches in GSTN portal as major concern: Survey

PNB fraud: Shell firms, benami assets under scanner

India moving towards a $5 tn economy: PM

RIL plans Rs 60K cr digital industrial area in Maha

Fortis Healthcare co-owner restrained from selling assets

Related imageSebi may give fresh push to loan default disclosure by listed firms

PNB scam: CBI scans balance sheets of 18 Mehul Choksi’s Gitanjali branches

‘ArcelorMittal’s ineligibility would send wrong signal to global community’

DLF plans to sell ready-to-move-in flats worth Rs 150 bn in next 3-4 years

Nirav Modi scam: Crisil puts Punjab National Bank’s ratings under watch

City Union Bank suffers cyber hack via SWIFT system

FTIL-NSEL merger: Apex court to hear arguments on April 18

Tamil Nadu preparing draft start-up policy

Indian Hotels aims for 8% rise in profits by 2022

Incentives for green tech, AI likely in new industrial policy

PNB-Nirav Modi fraud: Nexus between diamond traders and stock market brokers under scanner

As oil stocks drain, Opec searches for its next fig leaf

Nasdaq Dubai launches Abu Dhabi, Dubai equity index futures

NTPC eyes 100% equity in some JVs with state utilities, stressed assets

Pre-Budget: Goa industries want government to clear stand on mining

Budget not limited to outlay, focus on outcome, says PM Narendra Modi

Retailers accused of levying GST over MRP

Virgin Group, Maharashtra in pact to build Mumbai-Pune hyperloop

Maharashtra govt allows privatisation of cooperative spinning mills

Reliance to invest Rs 60K cr, Virgin to build hyperloop

Morning Business News Round Up_Jan 24, 2018

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  • Modi shows Davos his $5-trillion plan for India
  • ArcelorMittal opts out of Bhushan Steel race
  • Image result for ArcelorMittal
  • NCLT: Tatas oppose SP Group representation on board
  • Japanese investment jumps to $4,709 million in FY17
  • ONGC ties up 18K-cr loan from 3 banks for buying HPCL
  • FM Jaitley invites ASEAN nations to invest in India
  • Jio may soon pip Idea, Voda’s revenue market share
  • ONGC gets govt nod to sell stake in IOC, GAIL to fund HPCL acquisition
  • United Spirits Q3 profit slips 9% to Rs 1.3 bn on the back of market change
  • Ex-RBI chief Raghuram Rajan says India rate panel’s doing a good job
  • R-Infra plans captive use of 18 EVs, will set up charging stations
  • India should focus on women’s inclusion in economy: IMF chief at WEF
  • Bacardi to buy out Patron tequila in $5.1 billion deal
  • CBI to investigate NTPC, MMTC, others over coal imports
  • Bharat Dynamics files papers for IPO with SEBI
  • Tata Intl plans to double agri exports to $76 million by 2021
  • L&T Technology Q3 net up 16% at Rs. 126 cr
  • Welspun Corp plans to raise Rs. 250 cr via NCDs
  • Paytm valuation pegged at $10 b after secondary share sale
  • JPMorgan rolls out $20 bn investment plan after tax law gains
  • RBL Bank net income jumps 28% to Rs165.3 cr on fee income
  • Petrol, diesel prices jump; oil ministry seeks excise duty cuts
  • Indiabulls Housing Finance Q3 net rises 55% to Rs1,167 cr
  • VMware joins NxtGen to deliver scalable Cloud experience
  • SBI sees bad-loan provisions as biggest challenge
  • Final arbitration hearings on India tax demand in August:Cairn
  • CBI probes Rs 487 crore coal import scam
  • Globalisation is losing its lustre: Modi
  • West must share benefits of growth with emerging world: Rajan
  • Wheat output may decline 2.31% to 96.1 million tonnes
  • Market witnesses biggest pre-budget rally in 10 yrs

Markets Weekly Sentiment_29072017

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Markets had a decent week and expiry. Nifty not only defended 9900 but also managed historical closing above the 5 digit mark. Markets were up about a 1% point this week with Nifty above the 10k mark. The sentiment is bullish. Is it euphoric yet? Well difficult to say or judge but to our best understanding not yet. Lack of clear negative triggers and ample liquidity are keeping the markets afloat for now.

Results continued with positive surprises in Yes Bank – the stock rallied 10%! The seasons bulk of the news flow is behind us, however some crucial pockets still to come out. Mid caps will continue to be in action and it will be worth to see how some of them react to individual results. The valuation in the mid cap and small cap space seems to tell you a different story.

Technically speaking, Nifty should be in the process of shifting the base to 9900. Till that is defended, bulls need not worry. At the same time 10100+ was the high it hit on its way up. Automatically that becomes the level to cross. Since these are historical highs, it is difficult to claim resistance. No calculations would work.

Having said that – we continue to believe that nothing has changed fundamentally for the market. Nifty still trades at a historically high P/E multiple. Liquidity and lack of negative triggers are keeping the bears at bay. It may be wise to exercise extreme caution when you are investing. One cannot expect to make huge money in the short to medium term by investing at these levels. Stock picking should be the focus.

As mentioned in the last week Pharma was on caution and results of Dr Reddy proved to be the trigger. The index corrected 600 points and now is dangerously poised to go lower. Watch out of Nifty pharma 9400 levels as bears will be active to break those. Caution is also advised in metals space as Nifty metal hit a weekly resistance and failed to keep up. Rally seems to be losing steam. The Nifty bank is nothing less than euphoric and overbought. However further upside cannot be ruled out as it is in one of the best bull runs in recent times. This space should continue to see some action coming week. Other sector that should see some funds chase stocks is Infra. Watch out for the Nifty Infra index as it sustains above 3300 – there should steam left in this rally.

Markets Weekly Sentiment_15072017

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Markets closed up about more than 2% for the week. Nifty ended at striking distance from 9900. As you read this SGX has already breached that level. Large caps showed a lot of action with Reliance hitting highs again. The sentiment is upbeat albeit a bit of froth was seen in some IPO counters. Volatility ruled names like CDSL, AU Finance, ERIS and HUDCO. These stocks saw huge price action.

Technically speaking the markets finally broke out and are at all time highs. 9900 puts have seen some shorting and call writing has been subdued. 9720 (last high) is now a base level and key to Nifty’s immediate trend. On the upside 10k is doing the rounds – and may be a reality soon. 9450 seems to be the new intermediate bottom.

Fundamentals will start to show soon as results season has kicked off. Inflation came in at an all time low in years prompting an increased expectation of rate cuts. Multiples are inflated and at historical highs. Nifty continues its 24x P/E. With a lot to reach in terms of individual results one has to play the ride cautiously. A small reason – be it geopolitical or random news flow, can create havoc due to historically stretched levels.

Globally DOW and S&P found their own reasons to close at all time highs. The “reduced” fear of a rate hike from not-so-encouraging economic data  prompted a positive close to major US indices. What is surprising to see – the CBOE VIX – volatility index has hit an all time low since 1993. For a contrarian trader this is complacency at its best or worse.

Sectors to watch out for next week are Infra and Banks. Stocks in these indices may stage an extended rally if market sentiment supports them. PSU banks were showing some action and select are likely to do so going forward. Pharma companies have given a very strong show over the past few weeks. The rally should consolidate before scaling old highs. One has to be stock specific as result season will continuously re rate a lot of these issues.